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Root, Inc. (ROOT)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Root delivered a second consecutive quarter of GAAP profitability, with Q4 total revenues of $326.7M, net income of $22.1M, and diluted EPS of $1.30; adjusted EBITDA was $43.1M, and gross/net combined ratios improved to 90.6%/91.5% .
  • Versus prior quarter, revenue and EPS increased (Q3 revenue $305.7M; EPS $1.35), with continued underwriting strength despite a modest uptick in accident-period loss ratio (61.4% in Q4 vs. 58.4% in Q3) .
  • Management highlighted reinsurance cession down to ~9% of gross earned premium in Q4 with tail-risk covers maintained; interest expense run-rate expected to be reduced ~50% in 2025 following the BlackRock refinancing .
  • Strategic catalysts: accelerating partnerships (about one-third of Q4 new business), measured state expansion (launch of Minnesota; reach 76% of U.S. population), and disciplined rate reductions in select states supported by sub-target gross loss ratio performance .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Sustained profitability with strong operating leverage: net income $22.1M and adjusted EBITDA $43.1M in Q4; operating income $34.9M (vs. prior-year loss), driven by net earned premium growth and disciplined expenses .
  • Reinsurance optimization: cession of earned premium around 9% in Q4; plan to keep cession materially consistent while focusing on per-risk and CAT covers, enhancing retained economics .
  • Strategic distribution momentum: partnerships represent roughly one-third of Q4 new writings; embedding (e.g., Carvana Insurance “3‑click bind”) and agency investments support longer retention and higher average premiums; “we more than doubled our new writings in 2024” .

Quotes:

  • “2024 was a landmark year for Root… generating GAAP net income of $31 million and adjusted EBITDA of $112 million” .
  • “We see longer retention [in partnerships]… higher average premiums… [and] we incur [commissions] over a longer period of time” .
  • “Because our gross loss ratio continues to trend below our long-term target of 60% to 65%, we are able to reduce rates in select states” .

What Went Wrong

  • Accident-period loss ratio ticked higher sequentially (61.4% Q4 vs. 58.4% Q3), with severity up ~2% YoY and frequency down ~2%; moderation expected, but slight loss ratio increases possible with rate decreases .
  • Marketing spend moving more mid-/upper-funnel may drive near-term P&L pressure; management will invest at targeted IRRs but acknowledged possible quarterly EPS variability .
  • Competition increased modestly in Q4; management expects stability but remains vigilant on acquisition efficiency .

Financial Results

MetricQ4 2023Q3 2024Q4 2024Consensus (S&P Global)
Total Revenue ($USD Millions)$194.8 $305.7 $326.7 —*
Net Premiums Earned ($USD Millions)$176.0 $279.3 $299.7 —*
Net Income ($USD Millions)$(24.0) $22.8 $22.1 —*
Diluted EPS ($USD)$(1.64) $1.35 $1.30 —*
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$(0.3) $41.6 $43.1 —*
Gross Combined Ratio (%)109.7% 89.2% 90.6% —*
Net Combined Ratio (%)111.9% 91.1% 91.5% —*
Gross Accident-Period Loss Ratio (%)63.7% 58.4% 61.4% —*
Policies in Force (Units)341,764 407,313 414,862 —*

*Estimates unavailable due to S&P Global access limits. Values would be retrieved from S&P Global.

Reinsurance/Written & Earned Premium breakdown:

MetricQ4 2023Q3 2024Q4 2024
Gross Premiums Written ($USD Millions)$279.2 $331.7 $330.5
Ceded Premiums Written ($USD Millions)$(50.5) $(27.1) $(18.6)
Net Premiums Written ($USD Millions)$228.7 $304.6 $311.9
Gross Premiums Earned ($USD Millions)$214.4 $317.0 $331.0
Ceded Premiums Earned ($USD Millions)$(38.4) $(37.7) $(31.3)
Net Premiums Earned ($USD Millions)$176.0 $279.3 $299.7

KPIs and Ratios:

MetricQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Policies in Force (Units)406,283 407,313 414,862
Premiums per Policy ($USD)$1,522 $1,558 $1,584
Premiums in Force ($USD Millions)$1,236.7 $1,269.2 $1,314.3
Direct Contribution ($USD Millions)$87.0 $110.5 $115.8
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$12.1 $41.6 $43.1
Gross Loss Ratio (%)61.6% 57.1% 56.8%
Gross LAE Ratio (%)9.4% 8.3% 6.9%
Gross Combined Ratio (%)99.9% 89.2% 90.6%
Net Combined Ratio (%)102.7% 91.1% 91.5%

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious Guidance/CommentaryCurrent Guidance/CommentaryChange
Reinsurance cession of earned premiumNear-term run-rateQ3: ~12% ceded; shift away from quota share, maintain CAT/per-risk covers Q4: ~9% ceded; expect materially consistent cession levels going forward Lowered
Interest expense run-rateFY 2025Expect ~50% reduction post-refinancing (BlackRock) Expect ~50% reduction maintained Maintained
Loss trend / loss ratio outlookFY 2025Stable rates; opportunities to reduce rates in select states Low-to-mid single-digit loss trend; modest rate decreases; slight loss ratio increases possible, “nothing material” Clarified; modestly cautious
Marketing investment levelFY 2025Reinvent profits; expand mid-/upper-funnel channels; modest increase More mid-/upper-funnel (YouTube, video, direct mail) with rigorous IRR; potential quarterly P&L pressure Expanded scope
State expansionFY 2025Target national footprint; filings underway Launched Minnesota; reach 76% of U.S. population; more filings pending Progressed

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicQ2 2024 (Prior-2)Q3 2024 (Prior-1)Q4 2024 (Current)Trend
Pricing & UnderwritingStrong gross loss ratio (61.6%); select rate reductions possible Best-in-class gross loss ratio (57%); rate reductions in select states Below 60–65% target; reducing rates in select states; agile actuarial reviews Continuing discipline; selective rate cuts
Reinsurance strategyReduced difference gross vs net loss/LAE to 2 pts Ceded ~12% of gross earned; only 1-pt gap gross vs net loss/LAE Ceded ~9%; maintain CAT/per-risk covers; consistent cession outlook Lower cession, retain economics
Partnerships channel+120% YoY new writings; pipeline strong +131% YoY; Goosehead launch; stickier, “fatter” policies ~1/3 of new business; fully embedded experiences (Carvana) Scaling; higher retention
Direct marketingLower-funnel focus, expand mid-/upper-funnel Reinvest profits; expand experiments Shift more mid-/upper-funnel (YouTube, video, mail); rigorously measured Broader funnel; disciplined
State expansion34 states; aim to be national Continued filings Minnesota launch; reach 76% of U.S. population Expanding footprint
Retention/cohortsFavorable partnerships retention Cohort retention improving; partnerships retain longer Hypergrowth churn normalizing; tailwind to PIF growth Improving
Macro/tariffsWeather impacts (hail in CO/TX) Stable rate adequacy No tariff impact assumed; rapid response if needed Monitored; prepared

Management Commentary

  • “We delivered… our first full year of net income profitability… gross combined ratio of 95% on $1.3 billion of gross premiums written” (CEO) .
  • “In Q4… we delivered net income of $22 million… operating income of $35 million and adjusted EBITDA of $43 million” (CFO) .
  • “We are able to reduce rates in select states… we do not set prices with the primary goal to gain market share” (CEO) .
  • “Our session levels… were around 9%. We… expect… materially consistent with where they were in Q4” (CFO) .
  • “Refinancing… we expect to reduce our run rate interest expense in 2025 by ~50%” (CFO) .
  • “Partnerships… roughly 1/3 of our overall new business… Carvana Insurance… 3‑click bindable purchase experience” (CEO) .
  • “Minnesota launch… reach 76% of the U.S. population” (CEO) .

Q&A Highlights

  • Premium per policy outlook: modest rate decreases may pressure averages, offset by “fatter” partnership/agency policies; net effect flat to modestly increasing (CEO) .
  • Reinsurance cession: Q4 ~9% of earned premium; expect consistency; focus on CAT and per-risk covers (CFO) .
  • Retention: hypergrowth churn normalizing; tailwind to PIF growth; cohorts broadly consistent; no new metrics disclosed (CEO) .
  • Loss trend: low-to-mid single-digit for 2025; slight loss ratio increases possible with rate cuts, “nothing material” (CEO) .
  • Tariffs: no current impact assumed; platform enables rapid response if macro shifts (CEO) .
  • Ad spend: shift to mid-/upper-funnel channels with rigorous IRR discipline; potential quarterly P&L pressure (CEO) .
  • Channel returns: both direct and partnerships operating at target returns; partnerships have longer retention and higher average premiums (CEO) .
  • Competition: increased a bit in Q4; expected to be fairly stable (CEO) .

Estimates Context

  • Wall Street consensus (S&P Global) for Q4 2024 EPS/Revenue/EBITDA was unavailable due to access limits; no estimate comparison is provided here. Estimates would be retrieved from S&P Global if available.
  • Given Root’s second consecutive quarterly profitability, estimate revisions may focus on: sustained net income trajectory, lower interest expense run-rate, and retained premium economics from lower cession levels .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Profitability inflection sustained: Q4 net income $22.1M, diluted EPS $1.30; adjusted EBITDA $43.1M—supported by underwriting discipline and operating efficiency .
  • Reinsurance cession lowered to ~9% and expected to remain consistent—driving higher net retention while maintaining tail-risk coverage (CAT/per-risk) .
  • Interest expense run-rate expected down ~50% in 2025 post BlackRock refinance—structural tailwind to earnings power .
  • Rate actions: selective reductions in states supported by sub-target gross loss ratio; management expects only slight loss ratio increases—watch for growth-earnings tradeoffs .
  • Distribution mix: partnerships now ~1/3 of new business with longer retention/higher premiums; embedded integration is an incremental advantage (Carvana) .
  • Marketing pivot: increased mid-/upper-funnel testing may introduce quarterly EPS volatility; management emphasizes rigorous IRR discipline .
  • Execution priorities: state expansion (76% of U.S. now), continued pricing model upgrades (expected ~7% predictive power improvement), and automation across underwriting .

Press releases and filings reviewed:

  • Q4 2024 8‑K Item 2.02 and Shareholder Letter (full financials, KPIs, non‑GAAP reconciliations) .
  • Q4 2024 earnings call transcript ; alt copy corroboration .
  • Q4 2024 press release and scheduling .
  • Prior quarters: Q3 2024 8‑K and call ; Q2 2024 8‑K and call .

Footnote: Estimates from S&P Global were not retrievable at the time of analysis due to access limits; comparisons to consensus therefore are not included.